Didn’t Neil take under Altice in France? He also made recent low ball offers for $TIGO. I just am wary of a telco market known for disappointments & a large shareholder known for take unders.
It was Iliad he took under. I think this action & the capping of the upside here by having only one buyer is what will limit $ TIGO’s upside from here.
Hey Keith, thanks for reading & commenting, I'm a fan of your investment style & quarterly letters!
I agree that there's a risk of Niel striking at an "opportune" moment (dip in $TIGO either for idiosyncratic reasons or because overall market is down).
My reading of the Iliad situation is that it was more like that, instead of it being a "real" take under.
(I wasn't involved at the time though, my opinion here is only based on what I found about it afterwards. So I might miss some details)
On the other hand, you also have an action like this: https://www.iliad.fr/media/CP_121119_OPRA_Eng.pdf, where it seems that Iliad/Niel offered a higher price for the shares than really necessary.
Niel's involvement might cap the upside, but you can also read it in a positive way: it caps the downside.
Recent announcements of buybacks + special dividend with intention to start a recurring dividend are signals that at least for the time being, Niel is willing to share some of the spoils from the $ TIGO treasure.
(Gets cash out of Millicom and also into the hands of minority shareholders).
It's a funny dynamic: people selling shares because of the fear of a take under, make it more likely the share price is depressed and Niel can do a take under :)
Various Bonhoeffer Capital Management fund letters have been discussing or giving detailed updates about Millicom for the past 2 years or so BUT I think you need to go to sites like Seeking Alpha to read their letters e.g. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720751-bonhoeffer-capital-management-q2-2024-letter. I also linked to your post in my Monday links collection post:
Emerging Market Links + The Week Ahead (November 24, 2024)
China bank loan misappropriation worries, more Adani troubles (US indictments), Macau rising, Javier Milei interview, strong USD to hit EM bonds, EM stock picks & the week ahead for emerging markets.
Thanks for the update. Markets can certainly act inconsistently around catalysts and confuse what's priced in. But in the same way we were slightly underwhelmed by the markets reaction to this deal, cheap stocks can have a habit of rising seemingly without reason or catalyst in sight, so I'm not willing to write it off as short-term dead money yet!
very nice post ; had been wondering about towers lately also. wow, somehow tigo has attracted some of the best posters on finance substack.
i was recently dreaming that if lilak keeps tanking (-30% in recent week) and gets desperate, full costa rica would make a momentous inflection for tigo. i think its too soon for another restructure and upleveraging, but this seems in line with the type of longterm goals for the cashpile that niels may consider.
Earlier this week, , Iliad hinted at potential future dividends coming from Millicom.
https://substack.com/profile/5479014-jefke/note/c-77557928
Didn’t Neil take under Altice in France? He also made recent low ball offers for $TIGO. I just am wary of a telco market known for disappointments & a large shareholder known for take unders.
It was Iliad he took under. I think this action & the capping of the upside here by having only one buyer is what will limit $ TIGO’s upside from here.
Hey Keith, thanks for reading & commenting, I'm a fan of your investment style & quarterly letters!
I agree that there's a risk of Niel striking at an "opportune" moment (dip in $TIGO either for idiosyncratic reasons or because overall market is down).
My reading of the Iliad situation is that it was more like that, instead of it being a "real" take under.
(I wasn't involved at the time though, my opinion here is only based on what I found about it afterwards. So I might miss some details)
On the other hand, you also have an action like this: https://www.iliad.fr/media/CP_121119_OPRA_Eng.pdf, where it seems that Iliad/Niel offered a higher price for the shares than really necessary.
Niel's involvement might cap the upside, but you can also read it in a positive way: it caps the downside.
Recent announcements of buybacks + special dividend with intention to start a recurring dividend are signals that at least for the time being, Niel is willing to share some of the spoils from the $ TIGO treasure.
(Gets cash out of Millicom and also into the hands of minority shareholders).
It's a funny dynamic: people selling shares because of the fear of a take under, make it more likely the share price is depressed and Niel can do a take under :)
I'm pretty sure the recent offers for $TIGO were never meant to take it private
Various Bonhoeffer Capital Management fund letters have been discussing or giving detailed updates about Millicom for the past 2 years or so BUT I think you need to go to sites like Seeking Alpha to read their letters e.g. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720751-bonhoeffer-capital-management-q2-2024-letter. I also linked to your post in my Monday links collection post:
Emerging Market Links + The Week Ahead (November 24, 2024)
China bank loan misappropriation worries, more Adani troubles (US indictments), Macau rising, Javier Milei interview, strong USD to hit EM bonds, EM stock picks & the week ahead for emerging markets.
https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-november-24-2024
Thanks for sharing!
Thanks for the update. Markets can certainly act inconsistently around catalysts and confuse what's priced in. But in the same way we were slightly underwhelmed by the markets reaction to this deal, cheap stocks can have a habit of rising seemingly without reason or catalyst in sight, so I'm not willing to write it off as short-term dead money yet!
Totally. That's why I also continue holding the stock even though it could be dead money for a bit.
Trying to break through 300 SEK as we speak!
very nice post ; had been wondering about towers lately also. wow, somehow tigo has attracted some of the best posters on finance substack.
i was recently dreaming that if lilak keeps tanking (-30% in recent week) and gets desperate, full costa rica would make a momentous inflection for tigo. i think its too soon for another restructure and upleveraging, but this seems in line with the type of longterm goals for the cashpile that niels may consider.
Thanks, glad you found the post informative!
Yeah, seems like there could be extra M&A opportunities in the future, as I saw being discussed on twitter by https://x.com/gilmourkh & https://x.com/leonardo_1452_
It will postpone capital returns, but if we trust them to be capable operators, then whatever M&A they pursue will create more long term value.
They do have a big one on their plate already though, with $1bn for Colombia M&A next year. Can't do everything at the same time