Q2 2025 Portfolio Review

Up 10.34% in Q2 25, 10.25% YTD

I. Results

Q2 2025 Returns

• No Deep Dives Portfolio: 10.34%

• S&P 500 (in EUR): 2%

Combined with Q1 2025 results, this leads to a very satisfying outperformance versus the S&P 500. And when your base currency isn’t USD, 2025 has been brutal. The index may be up 4–5% in USD, but thanks to sharp USD devaluation, it’s down 6.8% when measured in euros.

Portfolio on June 30th, 2025

Little change from last quarter. Specific moves will be covered later in the post.

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II. General Themes & Thoughts

Trump kicked things off in April with some “don’t you know I’m loco?”…

… which got applauded by the usual suspects.

But this slowly made place TACO.

He might actually screw this up became nothing ever happens.

The market got complacent again. Stocks rebounded quickly from their April lows, and now we’re sitting at all-time highs… as if nothing happened, or even as if things improved.

Do you think things got better? I don’t. I’d still be very wary of anything that trades at the “America is exceptional”-multiple. Tariffs are not gone and we’re still waiting for all the major trade deal announcements. Elon and DOGE had their little moment in the spotlight, but no one is serious about tightening the belt and getting the debt down anymore.

The USD has dropped sharply, while we see more and more banana republic stories of public grift. And they’re not even trying to hide it! I’m not surprised by grift, but I am by the brazeness of doing it in the open. This lead to the launch of a new ETF $GRFT, based on the idea “People in or close to government and politicians have an edge in investing”.

“edge” 😉😉😉

Oh, and BTC treasury companies are popping up left and right, giving me strong “Long Island Blockchain”-vibes (news from 2017? lol, ok boomer)

I won’t go full macro on you, we are bottom’s up stock pickers after all. But just think about what happens to some stock multiples if the U.S. loses its stamp of exceptionalism.

On the other end of the pond, the theme I mentioned in the Q1 25 letter is still rippling through the markets.

Trump’s break with traditional allies has been so forceful it’s lit a fire under the EU: both in the form of increased defense spending and a German fiscal shakeup that includes a €500n infrastructure investment fund.

The broader vibe feels like the end of American exceptionalism. I know, nothing ever happens... but this time does feel different. From consumer boycotts of U.S. products to global allocators rethinking their overweight to U.S. equities, the shift is noticeable. And it could snowball: outperformance attracts flows, which fuels more outperformance. What if being overweight U.S. stops being the default?

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III. Portfolio Updates

Exited Positions

• Full exit of LVMH - MC.PA at €487:

  This is at a 24-25% loss on last year’s buys. LVMH will be fine long-term and could rebound if tariffs ease, but I see better opportunities with less Trump/tariff exposure. Buying temporary dips in compounders works best when the dip really is temporary. Which usually you find out in hindsight. Maybe I need to fish on some other ponds instead!

• Trimmed CHG.L - Chemring at 480.5p

  The stock is up 46%+ since my purchase in Dec 2024. Basically all multiple expansion (fwd P/E 16x → 24x), although fwd estimates might need to come up. As I’m writing this, the stock trades at 565p and 26.6x NTM P/E. I’m perfectly fine with trimming “too early”. That, too, is mostly obvious in hindsight..

New Positions

• Bought Sabre Insurance (SBRE.L) at 125p

  A niche UK motor insurer emerging from a messy 2022–23, with signs of recovery in 2024. At their Dec 2024 Capital Markets Day, they outlined a 2030 target of £80m PBT while paying out 70% of earnings as dividends. That’s over 10% CAGR from 2024.

  And that plan’s already been upgraded: now returning 80% of earnings, with optional buybacks and special dividends on the table. Same growth plan, less retained capital, more to shareholders.

  All of this is yours right now at a 9.7x NTM P/E. Introuced to me by kab604 on X

• Bought Amcor ( AMCR 0.00%↑ ) at $9.06

  It’s a boring plastics packaging name that currently seems to be out of favor like so many other defensive names. They just completed the acquisition of Berry Global.

  Currently trading at a 5y low fwd P/E of 11.3x exactly when EPS growth should reaccelerate thanks to merger synergies (expecting 35% EPS growth just from synergies, spread over 3 years). The company targets 10-15% EPS growth the coming years. Add a 5% dividend yield and you get 15-20% annual returns without multiple expansion. Seems like a safe “decent” return, with possible multiple expansion on top.

Top Contributors

This quarter was an anomalous one in which almost everything in the portfolio “worked”, except for Barry Callebaut.

Chemring (CHG.L): +47%

Riding the wave of increased defense spending, they reported good interim results in June: EBITDA up 14% YoY and the order book +28%.

They reiterated:

The Group's longer-term growth prospects are strong, underpinned by robust customer demand for our market-leading products and services, high barriers to entry across our market segments, and a high quality pipeline of organic and inorganic growth opportunities

Linamar (LNR.TO): 26.4% — Garrett Motion ( GTX 0.00%↑ ): +18%

I’m grouping these together for their auto exposure. Both dipped ahead of tariff headlines but have since rebounded sharply. They’re both cheap on current numbers, despite tough end markets, and both buying back shares.

Kitwave (KITW.L): +22%

Kitwave is a UK-based distributor of foodservice consumables (e.g., disposables, hygiene, and catering supplies), with growth built on strategic acquisitions.

I bought it when it was very cheap and it quietly climbed up again on no news. That is until today (July 1st), when it’s getting hammered on a lowered outlook. But that’s for Q3!

Sabre Insurance (SBRE.L): +17%

As mentioned earlier, a new position this quarter. I got lucky with my timing and the stock has already moved up nicely. More broadly, there seemed to be more of a bid for UK micro and small caps this quarter.

Millicom ( TIGO 0.00%↑ ) : +14%

Millicom is going full beast mode. And all the gains are still mostly driven by fundamentals. They’ve started paying a regular dividend (8% yield now, was 12% at announcement), announced two M&A deals acquiring assets from Telefónica (which is exiting non-core South American markets), and still had room to announce more special dividends thanks to all the cash coming in. I wrote it up last year at 16 % FCF yield. The stock has nearly doubled since and it’s still yielding 12% based on rising FCF guidance.

Top Detractor

Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW): -26%

Simply put, this is my lazy play on “cocao prices will mean revert after the massive spike”. The problem is that this temporary spike is lasting longer than expected.

Barry Callebaut was down 20%+ when they released earnings in April. There was a miss on volume and a big hit to net profit.

In theory, BARN runs a “cost-plus” model and passes on rising input costs to customers. In practice: “net profit impacted as cost+ not able to immediately fully pass major increases in unprecented volatility”. Whoops.

That said, BARN is still a big player in a tumultuous landscape and should be able to weather the storm better than smaller peers. At the end of the crisis, they’re positioned to emerge stronger.

IV. In Case you Missed it

V. Closing Thoughts

Pretty happy with the results this quarter and YTD. Still excited about the prospects of the portfolio holdings. I’ve also been working on my urge to trade, and managed to reduce my turnover by over 50% compared to last year.